Happy New Year!
That’s it – 2007 is officially in the past. The turkey's finally joined 2007 in the waste bin of history (figuratively for me at least – I’m a vegetarian). And it’s time to look forward and figure out what 2008 holds in store.
Among the second order Christmas gifts I received was a desk calendar. For those unfamiliar with the term - a second order gift is one for which the following formula is true:
Where y = the gift and x = the giver.
That is to say that it’s a gift to which neither the giver, nor the receiver gave any thought. Which, given that it’s supposed to be the thought that counts, is rather sad!
Anyway, my desk calendar is a prime example of the genre: a dull block of recycled paper with each page carrying the date and an uplifting quote.
January 1st is a real corker:
“I dreamed impossible dreams. And the dreams turned out beyond anything I could possibly imagine. You know, from my point of view, I'm the luckiest cat on the planet.”
Just as you reach for the sick bag it turns out that these pearls are from none other than Hugh Heffner and there’s not a red-blooded male over the age of 45 who knowing precisely which dreams he’s referring to wouldn’t concur with his conclusion!
But I don’t want to get carried away (leave that to Hugh’s dreams). Before I return to the prospects for the tech industry in 2008, it’s worth checking out the quote for January 7th (doesn’t everyone read ahead on desk calendars?)
“We're going to try and recruit the very best people we can and produce the best papers we can, and publish them to the highest standards we can.”
That was attributed to Conrad Black who, it has to be said probably shares the turkey’s views of 2007 with not much prospect of 2008 being any better for him. Or 2009 or 2010 or 2011 although 2012 holds out some prospect of an uplift subject, of course, to good behaviour
So if Conrad defines the floor and Heffner the ceiling, it’s easy to feel top quartile about the year ahead.
At the core of my confidence is the relief of seeing America rediscovering how to be American.
With the Big Election approaching at speed, every corner of the 50 states is digging into its folk memory and pulling out streamers and marching bands and ticker tape. And the world is drinking deep as the planet’s TV screens show millions of real people whooping and screaming and doing what America does best – getting on with being optimistic.
This flies in the face of the economic naysaying pundits who try never to let a day go by without finding some sign or other that ‘proves’ the US is in a recession. And that, they confidently assert spells trouble for the rest of the global economy: because as everyone knows –
“When America sneezes, the world catches a cold”Unfortunately, no one has told the good entrepreneurs of India and China that they’re supposed to be slowing down and their growth continues apace. And anyway, learned economists are now beginning to decouple America’s economic fortunes from those of the emerging economies.
If you are interested in the hypothesis, check out the Economist’s well-argued piece which certainly convinces me that China will grow at 8% or 9% even if hell freezes over.
Closer to home the near term future of the IT industry looks good too. Although cousins of the same pundits continue to devise ever more creative ways of linking the sub-prime meltdown to an inevitable demise of IT budgets, the major industry players are sticking to their 2007 guidance numbers.
This means that customers were still buying in their droves through the eye of the sub-prime storm when they should have been at their most nervous and while the market may shift towards cost saving rather than innovative solutions, there are, as yet, no sign of a major slump in 2008 revenues.
Personally, I haven’t felt as bullish as this for ages.
As regular readers of aim4tech will know, my life is spent with one foot firmly planted in technology and the other in the global capital markets and Christmas came early for me in 2007.
In mid December, ENRC – a mining and minerals company on whose Board I just joined – raised $3bn in an oversubscribed IPO on London’s main exchange.
This was good news for many obvious reasons and one less so.
ENRC is a business that is a bleeding edge exemplar of Thomas Friedman’s assertion that the World is Flat. Most of our assets are in Kazakhstan, our sales office is in Switzerland, our major customers are in China and Russia and we are subject to the regulatory regime of London!
Being part of the crew as we charted our way through the choppy waters of the IPO has given me first hand current exposure to just how London’s principles-based approach operates when it’s on steroids, comfortably accommodating all-comers so long as they are prepared to eschew centrally controlled economies and respect the power of the market.
With that particular wind at my back it’s perhaps no surprise that 2008 looks rosy. But I would add another 2007 phenomenon to my jolly bag.
Last year, as the following chart shows, saw the number of US companies listed on AIM climb above their Canadian cousins for the first time!
Admittedly it’s not a landslide– there are nearly 1800 companies listed on AIM – but the combined total for the Stars & Stripes of 46 beats the Maple Leaf’s 44 into second place.
But it must mean something - hopefully thebeginning of a trend....
A good thought for 2008 and food for anyone’s New Year resolution!
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